Thursday, November 17, 2016

Housing Starts increased to 1.323 Million Annual Rate in October

by Bill McBride on 11/17/2016 08:40:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,323,000. This is 25.5 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,054,000 and is 23.3 percent above the October 2015 rate of 1,073,000.

Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 869,000; this is 10.7 percent above the revised September figure of 785,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 445,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229,000. This is 0.3 percent above the revised September rate of 1,225,000 and is 4.6 percent above the October 2015 estimate of 1,175,000.

Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 762,000; this is 2.7 percent above the revised September figure of 742,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 439,000 in October.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased significantly in October compared to September.  Multi-family starts are up sharply year-over-year.

Multi-family is volatile, and this was a bounce back from the decline last month.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in October, and are up 22% year-over-year.  This is the highest level for single family starts since 2007.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in October were above expectations - and at the highest level since 2007 - and August and September were revised up.  A strong report. I'll have more later ...