Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Earlier: Industrial Production unchanged in October

by Bill McBride on 11/16/2016 03:21:00 PM

Earlier today from the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production was unchanged in October after decreasing 0.2 percent in September. Although the level of industrial production in September was the same as the previous estimate, revisions to the index for utilities raised the rate of change in total industrial production in August and lowered it in September. In October, manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent, and mining posted a gain of 2.1 percent for its largest increase since March 2014. The index for utilities dropped 2.6 percent, as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced the demand for heating. At 104.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in October was 0.9 percent lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged down 0.1 percentage point in October to 75.3 percent, a rate that is 4.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2015) average.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 8.7 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 75.3% is 4.7% below the average from 1972 to 2015 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production was unchanged in October at 104.2. This is 19.3% above the recession low, and is close to the pre-recession peak.

This was below expectations of a 0.1% increase.