Monday, November 21, 2016

Chicago Fed "Economic Growth Increased Slightly in October"

by Bill McBride on 11/21/2016 09:13:00 AM

From the Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Increased Slightly in October

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.08 in October from –0.23 in September. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from September, but all four categories again made nonpositive contributions to the index in October.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to –0.27 in October from –0.20 in September. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was somewhat below the historical trend in October (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:
What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.