Monday, November 07, 2016

Black Knight September Mortgage Monitor

by Bill McBride on 11/07/2016 08:29:00 AM

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to BKFS, 4.27% of mortgages were delinquent in September, down from 4.87% in September 2015. BKFS also reported that 1.00% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 1.46% a year ago.

This gives a total of 5.27% delinquent or in foreclosure.

Press Release: Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor: ‘Balancing Act’ of Low Rates, Rising Home Prices is Keeping Affordability Stable for Now; Raising Conforming Loan Limits Could Increase Origination Volumes

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of September 2016. This month, in light of 52 consecutive months of annual home price appreciation (HPA) and discussion in many quarters around the possibility of raising conforming loan limits, Black Knight took a closer look at HPA trends, home affordability and the impact that raising those limits might have on mortgage originations. ...
...
“The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008 restricted any additional increases in the conforming loan limit until national home values returned to pre-crisis levels. Now that we’ve reached that point by multiple measures, the GSEs can consider raising the national conforming limit above the static $417,000 where it has stayed for the last 10 years – aside from the 234 designated ‘high-cost’ counties, of course. Our analysis shows that there are approximately 17 times as many originations – roughly 100,000 in total over the past 12 months – right at the conforming limit compared to preceding dollar amount buckets, and that originations drop off by about 70 percent immediately above the limit. In addition, the data shows that a GSE loan originated right at the conforming limit is nine times more likely to carry a second lien than one that is not. One example scenario shows that, with all else being equal, raising the conforming loan limit by $10,000 could result in a one percent increase in originations – approximately 40,000 new loans and $20 billion in new loan balances.”
emphasis added
BKFS Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from Black Knight shows the Black Knight HPI.

From Black Knight:
• As of August, we’ve seen 52 consecutive months of year-over-year home price appreciation (HPA)

• The national level HPI is now $266K, the highest median home value seen since 2006 and just 0.7 percent off of the June 2006 peak of $268K

• Annual HPA was 5.3 percent in August, and has remained relatively stable in that range over the last 12 months

• The current rate of annual HPA is above the 19921996 average growth of 2.8 percent, but well below what was seen from 19982005

• Housing supply remains low by historical standards; as of August, there was a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale, down from 5.5, 5.5 and 5.2 months the last three years
Even though nominal prices are close to the previous high in the Black Knight index, real prices (adjusted for inflation) are still around 20% below the price peak in June 2006.

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.