Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Zillow Forecast: Expect "Modest Acceleration" in YoY Growth in September for the Case-Shiller Indexes

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2016 01:31:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: September Case-Shiller Forecast: Modest Acceleration in Home Price Growth Will Continue

According to Zillow’s September Case-Shiller forecast, the national index and both smaller 10 and 20-city indices look set to continue the acceleration in home price growth they exhibited in August. And after more than two years of steady growth around 5 percent annually, the U.S. National Case-Shiller home price index is within striking distance of reaching its July 2006 peak levels, just 0.1 percent off those levels, according to today’s data.

The September Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5.4 percent year-over-year and 0.7 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.3 percent year-over-year and 0.3 percent (SA) from July. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5.1 percent between September 2015 and September 2016, and rise 0.4 percent (SA) from August.

Zillow’s September Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s August Case-Shiller data release and the September 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, November 29.
The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be about the same in the September report as in the August report.  The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller