Thursday, October 06, 2016

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 249,000, 4-Week Average Lowest Since 1973

by Bill McBride on 10/06/2016 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 249,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 254,000. The 4-week moving average was 253,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 256,000. This is the lowest level for this average since December 8, 1973 when it was 252,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 83 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.
The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 253,500.

This was lower than the consensus forecast of 257,000. The low level of claims suggests relatively few layoffs.