Thursday, October 13, 2016

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 246,000, 4-Week Average Lowest Since 1973

by Bill McBride on 10/13/2016 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 246,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 249,000 to 246,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since November 3, 1973 when it was 244,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 750 from 253,500 to 252,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 84 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.
The previous week was revised down.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 249,250.

This was lower than the consensus forecast of 254,000. The low level of claims suggests relatively few layoffs.