Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Index

by Bill McBride on 10/04/2016 06:55:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Rise Quickly on Overseas Concerns

Mortgage Rates moved significantly higher today, relative to recently narrow ranges. It's enough to bring the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote back up to 3.5% (from 3.375%) on top tier scenarios. ... The source of today's panic is speculation that Europe is getting closer to its own version of "tapering." This refers to the gradual reduction in the amount of bonds being purchased by central banks. In the US, the "taper tantrum" in mid 2013 was the result.
emphasis added
• Early, Reis Q3 2016 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in September, down from 177,000 added in August.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $39.0 billion in August from $39.5 billion in July.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for August. The consensus is a 0.2% decrease in orders.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for index to increase to 52.9 from 51.4 in August.