Sunday, October 23, 2016

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales Over 17 Million SAAR Again in October

by Bill McBride on 10/23/2016 12:41:00 PM

The automakers will report October vehicle sales on Tuesday, November 1st.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in October 2016, down from 28 in October 2015.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: October Daily Sales to Reach 15-Year High

A WardsAuto forecast calls for October U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 17.8 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, making it the seventh month this year to surpass 17 million.

A 17.8 million SAAR is greatly higher than the 17.3 million recorded year-to-date through September, but does not beat the 18.1 million result recorded in the same month last year.
emphasis added
From J.D. Power: New-Vehicle Retail Sales in October Slip; Sixth Monthly Decline of 2016
The SAAR for total sales is projected at 17.7 million units in October 2016, down from 18.1 million units a year ago.
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Vehicle SalesThe dashed line is the September sales rate.

Sales for 2016 - through the first nine months - were up slightly from the comparable period last year.

After increasing significantly for several years following the financial crisis, auto sales are now mostly moving sideways.