by Bill McBride on 10/01/2016 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, October 01, 2016
The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the September ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, September auto sales, and the August trade deficit.
Also the quarterly Reis surveys for office, apartment and malls will be released this week.
A key focus will be on the second Presidential debate on Sunday, Oct 9th.
Early: Reis Q3 2016 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.2, up from 49.4 in August.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction at 49.4 in August. The employment index was at 48.3%, and the new orders index was at 49.1%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for September. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.4 million SAAR in September, from 16.9 million in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the August sales rate.
Early: Reis Q3 2016 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
At 9:00 PM ET, the Vice Presidential Debate, at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in September, down from 177,000 added in August.
Early: Reis Q3 2016 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through July. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $39.0 billion in August from $39.5 billion in July.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for August. The consensus is a 0.2% decrease in orders.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for index to increase to 52.9 from 51.4 in August.
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 256 thousand initial claims, up from 254 thousand the previous week.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 168,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September, up from the 151,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.8%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In August, the year-over-year change was 2.45 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for a $16.8 billion increase in credit.
At 9:00 PM ET, the Second Presidential Debate, at Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO