Friday, October 21, 2016

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 10/21/2016 02:03:00 PM

The advance GDP report for Q3 GDP will be released next Friday. The consensus is real GDP increased at a 2.5% Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate in Q3.

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.0 percent on October 19, up from 1.9 percent on October 14.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2016:Q3 and 1.4% for 2016:Q4.
From Merrill Lynch:
We expect the first estimate of 3Q GDP to show growth of 2.5% qoq saar, an improvement from the 1.4% pace in 2Q and 0.8% gain in 1Q. Although consumer spending is expected to slow from the strong 4.3% increase in 2Q, we still expect a solid 2.6% increase in 3Q, owing to strong auto sales.
CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth  was around 2.0% to 2.5% in Q3.