Friday, October 14, 2016

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 10/14/2016 08:43:00 PM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 1.9 percent on October 14, down from 2.1 percent on October 7. The forecast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% for 2016:Q3 and 1.6% for 2016:Q4.
From Merrill Lynch:
Retail sales increased 0.6% in September, as expected. However, "core" retail sales which nets out autos, building materials and gasoline, only increased 0.1%. This was below the consensus expectation of 0.4%. The August data were not revised but July retail sales were lowered to show a decline of 0.2% versus the prior estimate of a drop of 0.1%. As such, despite the fact that we were forecasting 0.1% mom for September core sales, our tracking estimate for GDP declined due to the downward revision to July. We sliced 0.2pp from our tracking, bringing our estimate of 3Q GDP growth to 2.7%.
CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth around 2.0% to 2.5% in Q3.