Friday, October 14, 2016

Preliminary October Consumer Sentiment declines to 87.9

by Bill McBride on 10/14/2016 10:08:00 AM

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 87.9, down from 91.2 in September.

he Sentiment Index slipped in early October to its lowest level since last September and the second lowest level in the past two years. The early October loss was concentrated among households with incomes below $75,000, whose Index fell to its lowest level since August of 2014. In contrast, confidence among upper income households remained unchanged in early October from last month, and more importantly, at a level that was nearly identical to its average in the prior twenty-four months (98.3 vs. 98.2). Perhaps the most concerning figure was a decline in the Expectations Index, which fell to its lowest level in the past two years, again mainly due to declines among households with incomes below $75,000. It is likely that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election had a negative impact, especially among lower income consumers, and without that added uncertainty, the confidence measures may not have weakened.
emphasis added
Consumer Sentiment
Click on graph for larger image.