Thursday, October 06, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up 6%, Inventory up 3% YoY

by Bill McBride on 10/06/2016 04:22:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year in September.  This is the seventh consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in September were up 6.3% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.2% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.4% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    Prices in Phoenix are up 2.2% through July (about a 3.7% annual rate) - slower than in 2015.

September Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Sept-086,179---1,04116.8%54,4271---
Sept-097,90728.0%2,77635.1%38,340-29.6%
Sept-106,762-14.5%2,90442.9%45,20217.9%
Sept-117,89216.7%3,47044.0%26,950-40.4%
Sept-126,478-17.9%2,84944.0%21,703-19.5%
Sept-136,313-2.5%2,10633.4%23,4057.8%
Sept-146,252-1.0%1,60925.7%26,49213.2%
Sept-156,98011.6%1,57322.5%23,396-11.7%
Sept-167,4216.3%1,49920.2%24,1953.4%
1 September 2008 probably includes pending listings