by Bill McBride on 10/19/2016 08:38:00 AM
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:Click on graph for larger image.
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,047,000. This is 9.0 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,150,000 and is 11.9 percent (±11.9%) below the September 2015 rate of 1,189,000.
Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 783,000; this is 8.1 percent above the revised August figure of 724,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 250,000.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,225,000. This is 6.3 percent above the revised August rate of 1,152,000 and is 8.5 percent above the September 2015 estimate of 1,129,000.
Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 739,000; this is 0.4 percent above the revised August figure of 736,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 449,000 in September.
The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.
Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased significantly in September compared to August. Multi-family starts are down sharply year-over-year.
Multi-family is volatile, and permits are up - so I expect multi-family starts to bounce back in October.
Single-family starts (blue) increased in September, and are up 5.4% year-over-year.
The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.
The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),
Total housing starts in September were below expectations - due to the decline in multi-family starts - however combined starts for July and August were revised up. I'll have more later ...
Posted by Bill McBride on 10/19/2016 08:38:00 AM