Thursday, October 06, 2016

Goldman's September NFP Preview

by Bill McBride on 10/06/2016 12:45:00 PM

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' September Payroll Preview by economist Elad Pashtan:

We expect a 190k increase in nonfarm payroll employment in September, above consensus expectations for a 172k gain, and up from our preliminary forecast of 175k. Although payroll growth slowed to 155k last month, subdued employment gains are not uncommon in August, and the trend growth rate in payrolls still looks solid, with the trailing 3- and 6-month averages at 232k and 175k, respectively.
The unemployment rate is likely to decline to 4.8%, while average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% in August and 2.7% over the past year.
Our above-consensus payroll forecast primarily reflects improving underlying labor market fundamentals during the course of the month. Initial jobless claims continued trending down towards post-crisis lows, and nearly all other employment indicators from the various regional and national manufacturing and service sector surveys turned up.
emphasis added
Here is my preview of the September employment report.