Monday, October 31, 2016

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Increases in October

by Bill McBride on 10/31/2016 10:50:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Increases Again, but at a Slower Pace

Texas factory activity increased again in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a fourth consecutive positive reading but moved down to 6.7. This suggests output grew but at a slower pace this month. ...
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The general business activity index has been negative for nearly two years, although it continued to push closer to positive territory in October, coming in at -1.5.
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Labor market measures indicated flat employment levels and slightly shorter workweek length. The employment index came in at 0.2, suggesting little change in headcounts in October. The hours worked index edged down to -1.8. ...
emphasis added
This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for October.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis).

It seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in October, and the consensus is for a reading of 51.6.