Wednesday, September 21, 2016

MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"

by Bill McBride on 9/21/2016 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 16, 2016. The prior week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

... The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week to the lowest level since June 2016. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to its highest level since June 2016, 3.70 percent, from 3.67 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Refinance Index Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity has increased this year since rates have declined.

Last week I noted "Based on the increase in mortgage rates over the last few days, I'd expect refinance activity to decline soon", and it looks like activity is now declining.  Rates would have to take another step down to see a pickup in refinance activity.

Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index is only "3 percent higher than the same week one year ago".