Wednesday, September 21, 2016

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

by Bill McBride on 9/21/2016 02:10:00 PM

Statement here. No change to policy.

As far as the "Appropriate timing of policy firming",  participants generally think that rates will be at 0.625% by the end of the year.

The FOMC projections for inflation are still on the low side through 2018.

Yellen press conference video here.

On the projections, GDP was revised down for 2016.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in
Real GDP1
2016201720182019
Sept 2016 1.7 to 1.91.9 to 2.21.9 to 2.21.7 to 2.0
Jun 2016 1.9 to 2.01.9 to 2.21.8 to 2.1n.a.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.9% in August, and the unemployment rate projection for Q4 2016 was revised up slightly.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment
Rate2
2016201720182019
Sept 2016 4.7 to 4.94.5 to 4.74.4 to 4.74.4 to 4.8
Jun 2016 4.6 to 4.84.5 to 4.74.4 to 4.8n.a.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July, PCE inflation was up only 0.8% from July 2015.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE
Inflation1
2016201720182019
Sept 2016 1.2 to 1.41.7 to 1.91.8 to 2.01.9 to 2.0
Jun 2016 1.3 to 1.71.7 to 2.01.9 to 2.0n.a.

PCE core inflation was up 1.6% in July year-over-year.  Core PCE inflation was unrevised for 2016.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core
Inflation1
2016201720182019
Sept 2016 1.6 to 1.81.7 to 1.91.8 to 2.01.9 to 2.0
Jun 2016 1.6 to 1.81.7 to 2.01.9 to 2.0n.a.