Thursday, September 15, 2016

CoreLogic: "548,000 US Homeowners Regained Equity in the Second Quarter of 2016"

by Bill McBride on 9/15/2016 11:59:00 AM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 548,000 US Homeowners Regained Equity in the Second Quarter of 2016

CoreLogic ... today released a new analysis showing 548,000 U.S. homeowners regained equity in Q2 2016 compared with the previous quarter, increasing the percentage of homes with positive equity to 92.9 percent of all mortgaged properties, or approximately 47.2 million homes. Nationwide, home equity grew year over year by $646 billion, representing an increase of 9.9 percent in Q2 2016 compared with Q2 2015.

In Q2 2016, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity stood at 3.6 million, or 7.1 percent of all homes with a mortgage. This is a decrease of 13.2 percent quarter over quarter from 4.2 million homes, or 8.2 percent, in Q1 2016 and a decrease of 19 percent year over year from 4.5 million homes, or 8.9 percent, compared with Q2 2015. ...

For homes in negative equity status, the national aggregate value of negative equity was $284 billion at the end of Q2 2016, decreasing approximately $20.4 billion, or 6.7 percent, from $305 billion in Q1 2016. On a year-over-year basis, the value of negative equity declined overall from $314 billion in Q2 2015, representing a decrease of 9.5 percent in 12 months.

Of the more than 50 million homes with a mortgage, approximately 8.6 million, or 17 percent, have less than 20 percent equity (referred to as under-equitied) and approximately 965,000, or 1.9 percent, have less than 5 percent equity (referred to as near-negative equity). Borrowers who are under-equitied may have a difficult time refinancing their existing homes or obtaining new financing to sell and buy another home due to underwriting constraints. Borrowers with near-negative equity are considered at risk of shifting into negative equity if home prices fall.

“Home-value gains have played a large part in restoring home equity,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The CoreLogic Home Price Index for the U.S. recorded 5.2 percent growth in the year through June, an important reason that the number of owners with negative equity fell by 850,000 in the second quarter from a year earlier.”
emphasis added
On states:
"Nevada had the highest percentage of mortgaged properties in negative equity at 15.3 percent, followed by Florida (14 percent), Maryland (11.8 percent), Illinois (11.7 percent) and Arizona (11.6 percent). These top five states combined accounted for 33.7 percent of negative equity in the U.S., but only 18.6 percent of outstanding mortgages."
Note: The share of negative equity is still very high in Nevada and Florida, but down from a year ago.

CoreLogic, LTVClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the distribution of home equity in Q2 2016 compared to Q1 2016.  

Less than 3% of properties have 25% or more negative equity.  For reference, about four years ago, in Q3 2012, 9.6% of residential properties had 25% or more negative equity.

A year ago, in Q2 2015, there were 4.5 million properties with negative equity - now there are 3.6 million.  A significant change.