by Bill McBride on 8/08/2016 11:15:00 AM
Monday, August 08, 2016
This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
Inventory was up 3.3% year-over-year in July. This is the fifth consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. This could be a significant change.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in June were down 1.8% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 19.7% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now up 3.3% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster - Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.
Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow in Phoenix. Prices in Phoenix are up 1.5% through May (about a 3.6% annual rate) - slower than in 2015.
|July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS|
|1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more|
2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending