Thursday, August 25, 2016

Back in Town, Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 262,000

by Bill McBride on 8/25/2016 05:39:00 PM

CR Note: I'm back from NYC. Had a great time!

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 261,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. The 4-week moving average was 264,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 265,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 77 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.
The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 264,000.

This was lower than the consensus forecast of 265,000. The low level of claims suggests relatively few layoffs.