Tuesday, July 19, 2016

WSJ: "A rate increase could come as early as September if economic data hold firm"

by Bill McBride on 7/19/2016 01:47:00 PM

Jon Hilsenrath and Michael Derby write in the WSJ: Fed Officials Gain Confidence They Can Raise Rates This Year

Officials are almost certain to leave rates unchanged when they meet July 26-27, according to their public comments and interviews with officials. But the message in their postmeeting policy statement could be that the economy is on a more solid footing than appeared to be the case when they last gathered in June, setting the stage for raising rates if the data hold up in the months ahead.
Meanwhile Tim Duy writes at Bloomberg: Why the Fed Can't and Shouldn't Raise Interest Rates
The Fed needs to remember that how they got into this policy stance may offer a lesson for how to get out. Policy makers cut rates to zero and then instituted quantitative easing. Now they should consider selling assets before raising rates. Or, at a minimum, utilizing a mixed strategy of rate hikes and asset sales. The objective of meeting the Fed's mandate in the context of maintaining financial stability may be unattainable using the interest rate tool and associated forward guidance alone. Unfortunately, the Fed does not appear to be debating the policy mix — at least not in public. They remain focused on interest rates, delaying balance sheet policy to a later date. On the current trajectory, however, that later date may never come.