Thursday, July 07, 2016

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declines to 254,000

by Bill McBride on 7/07/2016 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 254,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 268,000 to 270,000. The 4-week moving average was 264,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 266,750 to 267,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 70 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.
The previous week was revised up by 2,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 264,750.

This was lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggests relatively few layoffs.