Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

by Bill McBride on 7/27/2016 07:13:00 PM

Based on the FOMC statement, the likelihood of a rate hike in September (or November or December) has increased. Most analysts talk about possible rate hikes in September or December (ignoring November) because of the scheduled press conferences. However Fed Chair Janet Yellen has made it clear that all meetings are "live", so November is possible too. Some people think the Fed will wait until after the election, but I doubt that is a factor being considered.

Back to the FOMC statement: The first paragraph was about as upbeat as back in April when many analysts thought a rate hike in June was possible. So now the key is the data (the minutes will also be interesting). There are two employment reports (the July and August reports) between now and the meeting on September 20th and 21st.  Also the advance and second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released, and PCE for June and July, and CPI for July and August will be released before the September meeting.  If the data is solid, the FOMC might raise rates in September.

If the data is disappointing - as has happened so many times before - the FOMC will wait.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 264 thousand initial claims, up from 253 thousand the previous week.

• At 10:00 AM, the Q2 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

• At 11:00 AM, Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.  This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for July.