Saturday, July 30, 2016

Schedule for Week of July 31, 2016

by Bill McBride on 7/30/2016 08:09:00 AM

The key report this week is the July employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, July auto sales, and the June trade deficit.

----- Monday, Aug 1st -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.2, unchanged from 53.2 in June.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 53.2% in June. The employment index was at 50.4%, and the new orders index was at 57.0%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM ET: the July 2016 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve.

----- Tuesday, Aug 2nd -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.3 million SAAR in July, from 16.6 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the June sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Aug 3rd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 165,000 payroll jobs added in July, down from 172,000 added in June.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.0 from 56.5 in June.

----- Thursday, Aug 4th -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, down from 266 thousand the previous week.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for June. The consensus is a 1.8% decrease in orders.

----- Friday, Aug 5th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 287,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.8%.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In June, the year-over-year change was 2.45 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through May. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $43.0 billion in June from $41.1 billion in May.

3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for a $15.5 billion increase in credit.