Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 7/13/2016 12:31:00 PM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.3 percent on July 12, down from 2.4 percent on July 6.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.1% and 2.3% for 2016:Q2 and 2016:Q3, respectively.
From Merrill Lynch:
Wholesale inventories increased 0.1% mom in May, down from a 0.7% mom increase in the prior month (revised from 0.6% mom initially) and lower than consensus expectations of a 0.2% mom change. The data were a bit above our own expectations, which added 0.2pp to our GDP tracking estimate for 2Q, bringing us to 2.8% qoq saar.
CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth in the 2% to 2.5% range.