Monday, July 11, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 9%, Inventory up 7% YoY

by Bill McBride on 7/11/2016 10:45:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 6.5% year-over-year in June.  This is the fourth consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in June were up 8.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 6.5% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow.

June Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
June 20085,748---1,09319.0%53,8262---
June 20099,32562.2%3,44336.9%38,358---2
June 20109,278-0.5%3,49837.7%41,8699.2%
June 201111,13420.0%5,00144.9%29,203-30.3%
June 20129,133-18.0%4,27246.8%19,857-32.0%
June 20138,150-10.8%3,05537.5%19,541-1.6%
June 20147,239-11.2%1,85425.6%27,95443.1%
June 20158,27320.5%2,00523.0%23,377-16.4%
June 20168,9868.6%1,87520.9%24,8986.5%
1 June 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 June 2008 Inventory includes pending