Friday, July 08, 2016

June Employment Report: 287,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 7/08/2016 08:44:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. Employment also increased in information, mostly reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +123,000 to +144,000, and the change for May was revised from +38,000 to +11,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 6,000 less, on net, than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 147,000 per month.
...
In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up (+2 cents) to $25.61, following a 6-cent increase in May. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6 percent.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 287 thousand in June (private payrolls increased 265 thousand).

Payrolls for April and May were revised down by a combined 6 thousand.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In June, the year-over-year change was 2.45 million jobs.  A solid gain.


The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in June to 62.7%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.6% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased in June to 4.9%.

This was way above expectations of 180,000 jobs.

I'll have much more later ...