Thursday, July 07, 2016

Goldman's June NFP Preview

by Bill McBride on 7/07/2016 04:45:00 PM

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' June Payroll Preview by economist Zach Pandl:

We forecast that nonfarm payroll growth rebounded to +210k in June from just +38k in May. In part the pickup reflects the conclusion of a strike at Verizon Communications—this alone accounts for 70k of the month-over-month swing. However, we also see scope for improvement beyond Verizon, as other labor market data have generally looked encouraging.

We expect that the U3 unemployment rate increased by one tenth to 4.8%, following its three tenths decline in May.
...
Average hourly earnings for all workers likely rose 0.1% (mom) in June, following a 0.2% gain in May. ... Although we believe that wage growth has turned higher, this month the calendar quirks point to a smaller gain.