Friday, July 29, 2016

BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.2% Annualized Rate in Q2

by Bill McBride on 7/29/2016 08:37:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent (revised).
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The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in exports, and smaller decreases in nonresidential fixed investment and in federal government spending. These were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment, and downturns in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending.
emphasis added
The advance Q1 GDP report, with 1.2% annualized growth, was below expectations of a 2.6% increase.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 4.2% annualized rate in Q2, up from 1.6% in Q1.   Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 6.1% pace. Equipment investment decreased at a 3.5% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 7.9% pace (due to the recent decline in oil prices).

The key negatives were investment in inventories (subtracted 1.16 percentage points), fixed investment (subtracted 0.52 percentage point), and government spending (subtracted 0.16 percentage points).

I'll have more later ...