by Bill McBride on 6/20/2016 01:07:00 PM
Monday, June 20, 2016
This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
Inventory was up 5.5% year-over-year in May. This is the third consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. This could be a significant change.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in May were up 6.4% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.8% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now up 5.5% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster - Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.
Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow.
|May Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS|
|1 May 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more|