Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

by Bill McBride on 5/18/2016 05:30:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 275 thousand initial claims, down from 294 thousand the previous week.

• Also at 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 3.0, up from -1.6.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Spike to 6-Week Highs After Fed Minutes

Mortgage rates skyrocketed today, relative to their recent average daily movement, following the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. At the time of the Fed's last policy announcement at the end of April, financial markets were nervous that the Fed would more firmly indicate their intention to hike at the June meeting. When that announcement had no such clues, markets breathed a sigh of relief and rates moved steadily lower in the following weeks
...
Long story short, the Fed is leaving it's June rate hike options open. The Fed rate doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, but mortgage rates do tend to reflect future expectations of the Fed's rate hike path. Today ended up being the biggest single day jump in rates since early February. Almost any lender will be quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates an eighth of a point higher than they were yesterday, with the most prevalent quote moving back up to 3.75% for the first time this month.
emphasis added