Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 5/25/2016 08:05:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 275 thousand initial claims, down from 278 thousand the previous week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.

• At 11:00 AM, Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

From Tim Duy: Should The Fed Tolerate 5% Unemployment?

In recent posts I highlighted the stagnant unemployment rate. I believe the Fed is on thin ice by raising rates when unemployment is moving sideways, especially when there exists evidence of substantial underemployment (see also this FEDS note). But there is also evidence of growing wage pressures, in particular the Atlanta Fed wage measure ...
...
It seems to me then that a central bank with a symmetric inflation target would choose to refrain from further rate hikes when progress toward full employment had clearly decelerated