Thursday, May 05, 2016

Goldman's April NFP Preview

by Bill McBride on 5/05/2016 12:51:00 PM

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' April Payroll Preview by economist David Mericle:

We expect a 240k gain in nonfarm payroll employment in April. We increased our forecast from an initial estimate of 225k published last Friday as a result of the improvement in the employment component of the ISM non-manufacturing survey released this week. Our revised estimate is above consensus expectations for a 200k increase. ...

We expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4.9% in April from an unrounded 5.00% in March, but see the risks as tilted to the upside. ...

Average hourly earnings for all workers are likely to rise 0.3% in April, following a similar gain in March. ... A 0.3% increase would result in a 0.1pp increase in the year-on-year rate to 2.4% ... Looking further ahead, we expect wages to continue to accelerate as the labor market tightens ...