Friday, May 27, 2016

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in April

by Bill McBride on 5/27/2016 04:51:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate decreased in April to 1.15% from 1.20% in March.  Freddie's rate is down from 1.66% in April 2015. This is the lowest rate since August 2008.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in April to 1.40%, down from 1.44% in March. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.73% in April 2015.

This is the lowest rate since June 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent RateClick on graph for larger image

Although the rate is generally declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%. 

The Freddie Mac serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.51 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will be below 1% until the second half of this year.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.33 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until the second half of 2017.

I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).