Thursday, May 19, 2016

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Slight Contraction in May

by Bill McBride on 5/19/2016 10:01:00 AM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: May 2016 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to report tenuous growth this month. The indicator for general activity was essentially unchanged in May and remained slightly negative. Other broad indicators also reflected general weakness in business conditions. The indicator for employment improved but remained negative. Manufacturers’ forecasts of future activity tempered slightly from last month, overall, but continue to suggest confidence in future growth.
...
The diffusion index for current activity was essentially unchanged at -1.8 this month. The index has registered a negative reading in eight of the last nine months ...

The survey’s indicators of employment reflect similar weakness in May. Despite improving 15 points this month, the employment index registered its fifth consecutive negative reading, at -3.3.
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 3.0 for May.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through May. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through April.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys turned negative in May (yellow).  This suggests the ISM survey will probably be below 50 this month.