Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Case-Shiller Graphs: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in March

by Bill McBride on 5/31/2016 10:34:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Continue Steady Gains in March According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.2% annual gain in March, down from 5.3% the previous month. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composites’ year-over-year gains remained unchanged at 4.7% and 5.4%, respectively, from the prior month.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.7% in March. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.8% month-over-month increase while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.9% increase in March. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.1% month-over-month increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.8% increase, and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.9% month-over-month increase. After seasonal adjustment, six cities saw prices rise, one city was unchanged, and 13 cities experienced negative monthly price changes.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 10.6% from the peak, and up 0.8% in March (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 8.9% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in March.

The National index is off 3.0% from the peak, and up 0.1% (SA) in March.  The National index is up 31.1% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.7% compared to March 2015.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.4% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 5.2% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 19 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted. (the press release says 6).

I'll have more later.