Monday, May 02, 2016

Black Knight March Mortgage Monitor

by Bill McBride on 5/02/2016 09:12:00 AM

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for March today. According to BKFS, 4.08% of mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 4.66% in March 2015, and the lowest since March 2007. BKFS also reported that 1.25% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 1.68% a year ago.

This gives a total of 5.33% delinquent or in foreclosure.

Press Release: Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor: Home Price Increases Muting Affordability Gains from Low Interest Rates; Refinanceable Population Grows to 7.5 Million

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of March 2016. This month, in light of mortgage interest rates falling by approximately 35 basis points (BPS) since the start of 2016, Black Knight examined how these lower rates have impacted home affordability. Calculating principal and interest payments based on a fixed-rate mortgage with a 30-year term and 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, Black Knight examined how much per month it would cost a borrower to purchase the median-priced home at the national and state levels. All else being equal, interest rate declines would save borrowers significant money on such a purchase, but as Black Knight Data & Analytics Senior Vice President Ben Graboske explained, rising home prices are muting – and in some areas, completely cancelling out – the positive impact declining rates would have on home affordability.

"Excluding home price movement, the interest rate decline since the start of the year would save borrowers approximately $44 a month when purchasing the median-priced home nationally," said Graboske. "However, when you factor in estimated home price appreciation (HPA) – the most recent Black Knight Home Price Index Report for February showed annual HPA at 5.3 percent – those monthly savings fall to just $18. ”
emphasis added
BKFS Click on graph for larger image.

These graphs from Black Knight show measures of mortgage performance

From Black Knight:
• Overall delinquencies continue to improve, falling 8 percent month-over-month, 12 percent year-over-year, and – as mentioned on the previous page – are now at their lowest point since March 2007

• 30-day delinquencies continue to drop as well, and are currently sitting at 1.95 percent, the lowest level seen in well over 15 years, driven by pristine performance in recent vintages

• Severely delinquent loan populations (90 or more days delinquent or in active foreclosure) continue to linger in the market; 90+ is 45 percent above and the foreclosure rate is more than 2x above normal levels

• In a “normal” market, 30-day delinquent loans would account for roughly 55 percent of non-current loans; in today’s overly “back heavy” market, they only make up about 37 percent

• As additional severely delinquent loans are removed from the market, delinquency rates will likely continue to dip below “normal” levels in an overcorrection of the market
There is much more in the mortgage monitor.