Thursday, April 07, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 9%, Inventory up YoY

by Bill McBride on 4/07/2016 11:21:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up year-over-year in March, following fifteen consecutive months of year-over-year declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in March were up 8.5% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 24.6% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.6% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.  Inventory is something to watch in 2016!

March Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Mar-084,303---82219.1%57,0811---
Mar-097,63677.5%2,99439.2%49,743-12.9%
Mar-108,96917.5%3,74541.8%42,755-14.0%
Mar-119,92710.7%4,94649.8%37,632-12.0%
Mar-128,868-10.7%4,22247.6%21,863-41.9%
Mar-138,146-8.1%3,38441.5%20,729-5.2%
Mar-146,708-17.7%2,22233.1%30,16745.5%
Mar-157,88417.5%2,17227.5%26,623-11.7%
Mar-168,5558.5%2,10724.6%27,5803.6%
1 March 2008 probably included pending listings