Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in March

by Bill McBride on 4/20/2016 06:15:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 253 thousand the previous week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 9.0, down from 12.4.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for February 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.  The consensus is for a 0.4% month-to-month increase for this index.

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in seven, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 68. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 42 states and decreased in eight, for a three-month diffusion index of 68.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In March, 42 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

Five states have seen declines over the last 6 months, in order they are North Dakota (worst), Wymong, Alaska, Louisiana and Oklahoma - mostly due to the decline in oil prices.

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is mostly green now.

Source: Philly Fed.