Monday, April 18, 2016

NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 58 in April

by Bill McBride on 4/18/2016 10:04:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 58 in April, unchanged from 58 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Holds Firm in April

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged in April at a level of 58 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Builder confidence has held firm at 58 for three consecutive months, showing that the single-family housing sector continues to recover at a slow but consistent pace,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “As we enter the spring home buying season, we should see the market move forward.”

“Builders remain cautiously optimistic about construction growth in 2016,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Solid job creation and low mortgage interest rates will sustain continued gains in the single-family housing market in the months ahead.”
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The HMI components measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 62, and the index gauging buyer traffic also increased a single point to 44. Meanwhile, the component charting current sales conditions fell two points to 63.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, all four regions registered slight declines. The Northeast and West each fell two points to 44 and 67, respectively. Meanwhile, the Midwest and South each posted respective one-point losses to 57 and 58.
emphasis added
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast of 59, but still a strong reading.