Friday, April 29, 2016

Chicago PMI declines in April, Final April Consumer Sentiment at 89.0

by Bill McBride on 4/29/2016 10:08:00 AM

Chicago PMI: April Chicago Business Barometer Down 3.2 Points to 50.4

The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.2 points to 50.4 in April from 53.6 in March led by a fall in New Orders and a sharp drop in Order Backlogs. It marks a slow start to the second quarter, with most measures down from levels seen a year earlier.
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The decline in the Barometer was led by a fall in New Orders, leaving it at the lowest level since December 2015.
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Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “This was a disappointing start to the second quarter, with the Barometer barely above the neutral 50 mark in April. Against a backdrop of softer domestic demand and the slowdown abroad, panellists are now more worried about the impact a rate hike might have on business than they were at the same time last year.”
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of 53.4.

Consumer Sentiment
Click on graph for larger image.

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April was at 89.0, down from 91.0 in March:
"Consumer sentiment continued its slow decline in late April due to weakening expectations for future growth, although their views of current economic conditions remained positive. All of the April decline was in the Expectations component, which fell by 4.8% from one month ago and by 12.6% from a year ago and by 14.7% from its January 2015 peak. The retreat from the 2015 peaks was evident across a wide range of expectations about prospects for the national economy. The size of the decline, while troublesome, is still far short of indicating an impending recession. The decline is all the more remarkable given that consumers' assessments of current economic conditions, including their personal finance, have remained largely unchanged at very positive levels during the past year."
emphasis added