Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.3% year-over-year in February

by Bill McBride on 4/26/2016 09:12:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3 month average of December, January and February prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Price Increases Slow Down in February According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.3% annual gain in February, unchanged from the previous month. The 10-City Composite increased 4.6% in the year to February, compared to 5.0% previously. The 20-City Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.4%, down from 5.7% the prior month.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.2% month-over-month in February. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.1% month-over-month increase while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.2% increase in February. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.6% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.7% month-over-month increase after seasonal adjustment. Fourteen of 20 cities reported increases in February before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, only 10 cities increased for the month.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 11.4% from the peak, and up 0.6% in February (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 9.7% from the peak, and up 0.7% (SA) in February.

The National index is off 3.0% from the peak, and up 0.4% (SA) in February.  The National index is up 31.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.6% compared to February 2015.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.3% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 5.3% year-over-year.

I'll have more on house prices later.