Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Zillow Forecast: Expect Slightly Slower Growth in February for the Case-Shiller Indexes

by Bill McBride on 3/30/2016 11:27:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: February Case-Shiller Forecast: More of the Same, But Slightly Slower

The January Case-Shiller indices grew at the exact same annual pace as December. Looking ahead, expect all three February Case-Shiller indices to show similar but slightly slower slower growth, with the 10-City Composite Index expected to register sub-5 percent annual growth for the first time in months, according to Zillow’s February Case-Shiller forecast.

The February Case-Shiller National Index is expected to gain another 0.3 percent in February from January, down from 0.5 percent growth in January from December. We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.5 percent year-over-year, and the 20-City Index to grow 5.3 percent over the same period. The National Index also looks set to rise 5.3 percent year-over-year.

All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s January Case-Shiller data release and the February 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The February Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, April 26.
The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes, and the Case-Shiller National index, will probably be slightly lower in the February report than in the January report.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller