Thursday, March 24, 2016

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 265,000

by Bill McBride on 3/24/2016 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

Note: This week's release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2011 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised.

In the week ending March 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 6,000 from 265,000 to 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 259,750, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 8,500 from 268,000 to 259,500.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 55 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.
The previous week was revised down.

Note: The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 259,750.

This was below the consensus forecast of 268,000. The low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.