Monday, March 21, 2016

Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Table of Distressed Sales for Selected Cities in February

by Bill McBride on 3/21/2016 03:52:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: NAR: Home Sales “Fizzled” in February: Northeast Estimate “Looks Low”

In a report released this morning, the National Association of Realtors estimated that US existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million in February, down 7.1% from January’s pace and up 2.2% from last February’s pace. The NAR’s estimate for unadjusted home sales last month was 6.4% higher than a year earlier. The NAR’s estimate for home sales was slightly lower my below-consensus projection based on regional tracking. In looking at the NAR’s regional estimates, the YOY increases in sales seem “reasonable” in all areas save for the Northeast, where local realtor/MLS reports suggest a significantly higher YOY gain than that shown by the NAR. I would expect the NAR to revise upward home sales for the Northeast in next month’s report, though the pace of national home sales would still be well below the “consensus” projection.

CR Note: Tom Lawler also sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for a several selected cities in February.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

  Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Feb-
2015
Feb-
2014
Feb-
2015
Feb-
2014
Feb-
2015
Feb-
2014
Feb-
2015
Feb-
2014
Las Vegas6.6%9.7%8.6%9.7%15.2%19.4%31.4%37.4%
Reno**4.0%7.0%4.0%7.0%8.0%14.0%   
Phoenix            29.0%29.9%
Sacramento4.5%6.3%5.2%8.6%9.7%14.9%22.9%19.8%
Minneapolis3.2%2.8%13.0%15.6%16.2%18.4%   
Mid-Atlantic4.5%5.3%15.8%15.1%20.3%20.4%22.3%21.2%
Bay Area CA*2.7%3.5%3.0%3.8%5.7%7.3%24.8%25.6%
Riverside2.5%2.9%4.1%6.0%6.6%8.9%19.3%21.4%
San Bernardino2.9%3.1%4.8%6.8%7.7%9.9%23.7%26.1%
So. California*3.2%4.3%4.5%5.7%7.7%10.0%25.1%26.8%
Bay Area CA*2.7%3.5%3.0%3.8%5.7%7.3%24.8%25.6%
Florida SF3.3%5.0%14.3%24.1%17.7%29.1%36.6%42.3%
Florida C/TH1.9%2.9%11.2%19.0%13.1%21.8%63.4%69.4%
Chicago (city)        22.9%29.9%   
Florida SF3.3%5.0%14.3%24.1%17.7%29.1%36.6%42.3%
Florida C/TH1.9%2.9%11.2%19.0%13.1%21.8%63.4%69.4%
Northeast Florida        26.3%37.5%   
Chicago (city)        22.9%29.9%   
Toledo            38.7%38.9%
Knoxville            24.3%23.9%
Tucson            30.1%33.7%
Georgia***            23.7%27.1%
Omaha            21.3%19.6%
Pensacola            31.3%36.7%
Rhode Island        14.5%21.4%   
Richmond VA     15.4%13.9%       
Memphis    16.8%17.6%       
Springfield IL**    16.5%14.6%       
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS