Thursday, March 03, 2016

Goldman Payroll Preview: 195K Forecast

by Bill McBride on 3/03/2016 03:31:00 PM

Note: Earlier I wrote: Preview: Employment Report for February

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven:

We expect a 195k gain in nonfarm payroll employment in February, in line with consensus expectations—and a slight downward revision from our forecast at the start of the week. Labor market indicators were mixed in February, with lower jobless claims and a rise in the ISM manufacturing employment component, but declines in the employment components of most non-manufacturing surveys, including the ISM services survey. We expect some rebound from the large declines last month in employment in the private education, temporary help services, and couriers and messengers sectors.

The unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Average hourly earnings are likely to rise just 0.1% month-over-month, due mostly to calendar effects. ... A 0.1% increase in February would still result in a year-on-year rate flat at 2.5% (due to favorable base effects).