Thursday, March 31, 2016

Goldman: March Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 3/31/2016 11:45:00 AM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: March Payrolls Preview

We expect a 220k gain in nonfarm payroll employment in March, above consensus expectations for a 205k increase and in line with the average rate of employment growth over the last year. A further decline in jobless claims and improvements in the employment components of most business surveys were the highlights of the overall improvement in labor market indicators in March.

The unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.9%, with risks to the downside. Average hourly earnings are likely to rise at a trend-like pace of 0.2% this month, with a rebound from last month’s surprisingly soft print offset by negative calendar effects.