by Bill McBride on 3/31/2016 06:56:00 PM
Thursday, March 31, 2016
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 210,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March, down from the 242,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.9%.
• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.5, up from 49.5 in February. The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction at 49.5% in February. The employment index was at 48.5%, and the new orders index was at 51.5%.
• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.
• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 90.9, up from the preliminary reading 91.0.
• All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.6 million SAAR in March from 17.5 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate decreased in February to 1.26% from 1.33% in January. Freddie's rate is down from 1.81% in February 2015. This is the lowest rate since September 2008.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Fannie Mae reported yesterday.
Click on graph for larger image
Although the rate is generally declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.55 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until the second half of this year.
I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).